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Creators/Authors contains: "Karcher, Michael"

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  1. Arctic Ocean gateway fluxes play a crucial role in linking the Arctic with the global ocean and affecting climate and marine ecosystems. We reviewed past studies on Arctic–Subarctic ocean linkages and examined their changes and driving mechanisms. Our review highlights that radical changes occurred in the inflows and outflows of the Arctic Ocean during the 2010s. Specifically, the Pacific inflow temperature in the Bering Strait and Atlantic inflow temperature in the Fram Strait hit record highs, while the Pacific inflow salinity in the Bering Strait and Arctic outflow salinity in the Davis and Fram straits hit record lows. Both the ocean heat convergence from lower latitudes to the Arctic and the hydrological cycle connecting the Arctic with Subarctic seas were stronger in 2000–2020 than in 1980–2000. CMIP6 models project a continuing increase in poleward ocean heat convergence in the 21st century, mainly due to warming of inflow waters. They also predict an increase in freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean, with the largest increase in freshwater export expected to occur in the Fram Strait due to both increased ocean volume export and decreased salinity. Fram Strait sea ice volume export hit a record low in the 2010s and is projected to continue to decrease along with Arctic sea ice decline. We quantitatively attribute the variability of the volume, heat, and freshwater transports in the Arctic gateways to forcing within and outside the Arctic based on dedicated numerical simulations and emphasize the importance of both origins in driving the variability. 
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  2. Arctic observing and data systems have been widely recognized as critical infrastructures to support decision making and understanding across sectors in the Arctic and globally. Yet due to broad and persistent issues related to coordination, deployment infrastructure and technology gaps, the Arctic remains among the most poorly observed regions on the planet from the standpoint of conventional observing systems. Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks (SAON) was initiated in 2011 to address the persistent shortcomings in the coordination of Arctic observations that are maintained by its many national and organizational partners. SAON set forth a bold vision in its 2018 – 28 strategic plan to develop a roadmap for Arctic observing and data systems (ROADS) to specifically address a key gap in coordination efforts—the current lack of a systematic planning mechanism to develop and link observing and data system requirements and implementation strategies in the Arctic region. This coordination gap has hampered partnership development and investments toward improved observing and data systems. ROADS seeks to address this shortcoming through generating a systems-level view of observing requirements and implementation strategies across SAON’s many partners through its roadmap. A critical success factor for ROADS is equitable participation of Arctic Indigenous Peoples in the design and development process, starting at the process design stage to build needed equity. ROADS is both a comprehensive concept, building from a societal benefit assessment approach, and one that can proceed step-wise so that the most imperative Arctic observations—here described as shared Arctic variables (SAVs)—can be rapidly improved. SAVs will be identified through rigorous assessment at the beginning of the ROADS process, with an emphasis in that assessment on increasing shared benefit of proposed system improvements across a range of partnerships from local to global scales. The success of the ROADS process will ultimately be measured by the realization of concrete investments in and well-structured partnerships for the improved sustainment of Arctic observing and data systems in support of societal benefit. 
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  3. Abstract. In September 2019, the researchicebreaker Polarstern started the largest multidisciplinary Arctic expedition to date,the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of ArcticClimate) drift experiment. Being moored to an ice floe for a whole year,thus including the winter season, the declared goal of the expedition is tobetter understand and quantify relevant processes within theatmosphere–ice–ocean system that impact the sea ice mass and energy budget,ultimately leading to much improved climate models. Satellite observations,atmospheric reanalysis data, and readings from a nearby meteorologicalstation indicate that the interplay of high ice export in late winter andexceptionally high air temperatures resulted in the longest ice-free summerperiod since reliable instrumental records began. We show, using aLagrangian tracking tool and a thermodynamic sea ice model, that the MOSAiCfloe carrying the Central Observatory (CO) formed in a polynya event northof the New Siberian Islands at the beginning of December 2018. The resultsfurther indicate that sea ice in the vicinity of the CO (<40 kmdistance) was younger and 36 % thinner than the surrounding ice withpotential consequences for ice dynamics and momentum and heat transferbetween ocean and atmosphere. Sea ice surveys carried out on variousreference floes in autumn 2019 verify this gradient in ice thickness, andsediments discovered in ice cores (so-called dirty sea ice) around the COconfirm contact with shallow waters in an early phase of growth, consistentwith the tracking analysis. Since less and less ice from the Siberianshelves survives its first summer (Krumpen et al., 2019), the MOSAiCexperiment provides the unique opportunity to study the role of sea ice as atransport medium for gases, macronutrients, iron, organic matter,sediments and pollutants from shelf areas to the central Arctic Ocean andbeyond. Compared to data for the past 26 years, the sea ice encountered atthe end of September 2019 can already be classified as exceptionally thin,and further predicted changes towards a seasonally ice-free ocean willlikely cut off the long-range transport of ice-rafted materials by theTranspolar Drift in the future. A reduced long-range transport of sea icewould have strong implications for the redistribution of biogeochemicalmatter in the central Arctic Ocean, with consequences for the balance ofclimate-relevant trace gases, primary production and biodiversity in theArctic Ocean. 
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